Weekly Update
July 6, 2026
Upcoming Events
Monday, July 6
Waller Speaks at the Closing Conference of the European System of Central Banks Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World
Tuesday, July 7
Survey of Consumer Expectations Release
GDPNow Update
Wednesday, July 8
GDPNow Update
Thursday, July 9
Williams Delivers Keynote Moderated Discussion at The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning Workshop
Recent News
JOLTS… Job openings held steady at 7.6 million in May, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million, and total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits held at 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges were unchanged at 1.7 million.
The job openings rate remained at 4.6 percent, while the hires rate held at 3.3 percent and the total separations rate was unchanged at 3.2 percent. The quits rate, a gauge of workers’ willingness to leave jobs, stayed at 1.9 percent, and the layoffs and discharges rate held at 1.1 percent. April’s figures were revised modestly: job openings were revised down by 33,000 to 7.6 million, while hires were revised up by 99,000 to 5.2 million and total separations were revised up by 60,000 to 5.0 million.
Employment… The labor market showed modest signs of cooling in June, according to the Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000, while the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.2 percent. Revisions to prior months were notably downward: April’s gain was revised down to 148,000 from 179,000, and May’s was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000, subtracting a combined 74,000 jobs from the previously reported totals.
ECB Forum… Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh joined ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem for a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal.
Asked whether a July rate move was on the table, Warsh declined to offer forward guidance, noting only that the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting is four weeks away and that he wants a genuine debate among his colleagues before any decision is made. He described the current picture as one where labor markets are steady, demand is solid, and productivity growth has been strong, and he reaffirmed that the Fed remains committed to restoring price stability.
Much of the discussion turned to artificial intelligence. Warsh argued that productivity gains from AI could make the United States a major economic winner over the medium term, dismissing fears that automation will simply destroy jobs as a version of the long-discredited “lump of labor” argument. At the same time, he cautioned that the timing of AI’s disinflationary and inflationary effects on the economy remains uncertain and will need to be watched closely.
On the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, Warsh reiterated his long-standing preference for using interest rates as the primary tool of monetary policy rather than the balance sheet, and said a newly formed outside task force will study whether and how the balance sheet should be reduced further.
Asked about the Supreme Court’s recent ruling preserving Governor Lisa Cook’s seat, Warsh said the Fed had operated independently before the decision and would continue to do so, adding that he takes seriously both the rule of law and the Fed’s obligation to deliver on its dual mandate.
Despite the many open questions on the table, Warsh struck an optimistic note about the U.S. economy’s prospects:
[I]f the Fed can deliver on its remit to deliver [price stability], I’ve never been more optimistic about what the growth engine of the US could produce.