Weekly Update
March 16, 2026
Upcoming Events
Monday, March 16
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Release
Tuesday, March 17
FOMC Meeting
Wednesday, March 18
FOMC Meeting and Press Conference
Summary of Economic Projections
Thursday, March 19
GDPNow Update
Saturday, March 21
Powell Speaks at American Society for Public Administration
Recent News
Meeting expectations… The Federal Open Market Committee will almost certainly leave its federal funds rate target unchanged at this week’s meeting. The CME Group currently puts the odds of a March rate cut at just 0.8 percent.
Whereas the rate decision appears to be a foregone conclusion, there remains some ambiguity about how FOMC members are thinking about the dual mandate in light of the incoming data. Inflation remains elevated. But some have expressed concerns about the labor market softening. Market watchers will be hanging on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s every word at the press conference, as they try to divine how the FOMC will set its policy rate over the months ahead.
Order in the court… Chief Judge James E. Boasberg of the United Stated District Court for the District of Columbia granted the Federal Reserve’s Motion to Quash two subpoenas served by the Department of Justice in January 2026. The DOJ was seeking records about recent renovations of the Federal Reserve Board’s buildings and the testimony Chair Powell delivered to Congress related to the renovations.
In its Motion to Quash, the Fed claimed the “purpose of the Subpoenas is to dictate the Federal Reserve’s setting of monetary policy—specifically, to harass, pressure, and punish the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell until they set monetary policy the way the President wants.” Since Congress has “afforded the Federal Reserve independence in the setting of monetary policy” and “did so precisely to insulate it from this sort of pressure,” the Fed argued, the United States Attorneys Office for the District of Columbia (USAO) “seeks to help the President achieve indirectly what the law prohibits him from doing directly.”
The government maintained that the subpoenas were issued as “part of an investigation into possible fraud and false statements related to the renovation of a government facility.”
In support of its claim, the Board provides a prolix recitation of social media posts and other comments. While the majority of the posts and comments preceded the Subpoenas by months, if not years, the Board does not provide a scintilla of evidence they had any effect on the issuance of the Subpoenas.
The government accused the Fed of committing “the logical fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc.”
In reply, the Fed said “THE FACTUAL CHRONOLOGY LAYS BARE THE SUBPOENAS’ IMPROPER PURPOSE.”
The record here is thus nothing like the “speculative” claims of bad faith rejected in the USAO’s cited case, in which the assertion of an improper purpose was based on nothing more than “the length of the investigation” and unsupported allegations of judicial bias. […] Calling it speculation that the Subpoenas here were motivated by a desire to help the President get rid of Chair Powell and assert control over monetary policy is like calling it “speculation” that it is raining when people walk into a building dripping wet and carrying wet umbrellas.
Chief Judge Boasberg, who was appointed by former President Barack Obama, ultimately sided with the Fed. However, the government is expected to appeal the decision.
Prices… Inflation rebounded in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. The Consumer Price Index grew at a continuously compounded annualized rate of 3.2 percent in February 2026. CPI inflation has averaged 2.6 percent over the past six months and 2.4 percent over the past twelve months.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, receded last month, but remains elevated. Core CPI grew at a continuously compounded annualized rate of 2.6 percent in February 2026. Core CPI inflation has averaged 2.3 percent over the past six months and 2.4 percent over the past twelve months.
JOLTS… The number of job openings ticked up in January 2026, according to new data released by the BLS. There were 6.9 million openings on the last business day of the month, up from 6.6 million on the last business day of December 2025. Job openings have generally declined over the last year. There were 7.4 million job openings on the last business day of January 2025.
According to the BLS, there were 5.3 million hires in January 2026, which was roughly unchanged from the prior month. There were 5.1 million separations, down from 5.2 million in the prior month.
Within separations, there were 3.1 million quits in January 2026 (down from 3.2 million in December 2025) and 1.6 million layoffs and discharges (down from 1.7 million).