Weekly Update
February 16, 2026
Upcoming Events
Monday, February 16
Bowman Speaks at American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers
Tuesday, February 17
Barr Speaks at New York Association for Business Economics Event
Wednesday, February 18
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Release
FOMC Meeting Minutes Release
GDPNow Update
Bowman Speaks at the Exchequer Club
Thursday, February 19
GDPNow Update
Goolsbee Speaks at Chicago Fed/Yale University Program on Financial Stability’s Joint Conference on Financial Crises
Bostic Speaks at Atlanta Fed’s Banking Outlook Conference
Bowman Speaks at Atlanta Fed’s Banking Outlook Conference
Friday, February 20
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Release
Gross Domestic Product Release
Surveys of Consumers Update
GDPNow Update
Recent News
Prices… Inflation cooled in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. The Consumer Price Index grew at a continuously compounded annualized rate of 2.0 percent in January 2026. CPI inflation has averaged 2.7 percent over the past six months and 2.4 percent over the past twelve months.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices but also puts more weight on the shelter component, remained elevated. Core CPI grew at a continuously compounded annualized rate of 3.5 percent in January 2026. Core CPI inflation has averaged 2.5 percent over the past six months and 2.5 percent over the past twelve months.
Employment situation… The economy added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, according to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was revised down by 15,000 for November 2025, from +56,000 to +41,000. It was revised down by 2,000 for December 2025, from +50,000 to +48,000.
The labor force increased to 171.9 million in January 2026, up from 171.5 million in the prior month. The total number of employed persons increased from 164.0 million to 164.5 million. The total number of unemployed persons decreased from 7.5 million to 7.4 million, with the unemployment rate falling from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent.
Prime-age employment remains strong. In January 2026, 80.9 percent of those 25 to 54 years old were employed, compared with 80.7 percent in December 2025. For comparison, 80.6 percent of prime-age workers were employed just prior to the pandemic.
Whereas total employment has grown steadily, government employment has declined significantly over the last six months. From January 2024 to January 2025, the last year of the Biden administration, government employment increased 1.8 percent, compared with just 0.6 percent growth in private employment. That trend has reversed under the Trump administration. In January 2026, government employment was just 0.7 percent higher than it had been in January 2024 whereas private employment was 1.1 percent higher.
Survey says… Consumers continue to expect above-target inflation, according to the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median year-ahead inflation expectations were 3.1 percent in January 2026, down from 3.4 percent in the prior month. Consumers continue to expect 3.0 percent inflation per year over the three- and five-year horizons.