Weekly Update
May 11, 2026
Upcoming Events
Tuesday, May 12
Consumer Price Index Release
Goolsbee Speaks at Greater Rockford Chamber of Commerce
Williams Speaks at Swiss National Bank and International Monetary Fund Conference
Wednesday, May 13
Producer Price Index Release
Kashkari Speaks at St. Paul Area Chamber Event
Thursday, May 14
GDPNow Update
Hammack Speaks at Cleveland Fed Event
Williams Speaks at the Conference of Business Economists
Barr Speaks at Money Marketeers Event
Friday, May 15
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Release
Survey of Professional Forecasters Release
Recent News
Employment situation… The economy added 113,000 jobs in April 2026, according to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was revised down by 23,000 in February, from -133,000 to -156,000. It was revised up by 7,000 for March 2026, from +178,000 to +185,000. After taking all revisions into account, the economy added 251,000 jobs over the last year—or, roughly 21,000 jobs per month.
The labor force was 170.0 million in April 2026, down nearly 0.1 million from the prior month. The total number of employed persons decreased from 162.8 million to 162.6 million. The total number of unemployed persons increased from 7.2 million to 7.4 million, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3 percent.
Prime-age employment remains strong. In April 2026, 80.7 percent of those 25 to 54 years old were employed, which was unchanged from the prior month. For comparison, 80.6 percent of prime-age workers were employed in January 2020, just prior to the pandemic.
JOLTS… The number of job openings was roughly unchanged March 2026, according to new data released by the BLS. There were 6.9 million openings on the last business day of the month. Job openings have declined slightly over the last year. There were 7.0 million job openings on the last business day of March 2025.
According to the BLS, there were 5.6 million hires in March 2026, up from 4.9 million in the prior month. There were 5.4 million separations, up from 5.0 million in the prior month.
Within separations, there were 3.2 million quits in March 2026 (up from 3.0 million in the prior month) and 1.9 million layoffs and discharges (up from 1.7 million in the prior month).
Survey says… Consumers continue to expect above-target inflation, according to the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median year-ahead inflation expectations were 3.6 percent in April 2026, up from 3.4 percent in the prior month. Year-ahead inflation expectations peaked in June 2022 at 6.8 percent, and have hovered at or above 3.0 percent since December 2023. But they have ticked up over the last two months.
Consumers expect 3.1 percent inflation per year over the next three years and 3.0 percent inflation per year over the next five years.