Weekly Update
February 9, 2026
Upcoming Events
Monday, February 9
Survey of Consumer Expectations Release
Waller Speaks at Global Interdependence Center Summit
Miran Joins WBUR Podcast
Miran Speaks Boston University Questrom School of Business Event
Tuesday, February 10
Employment Cost Index Release
Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Release
GDPNow Update
Hammack Speaks at Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit
Wednesday, February 11
Jobs Report Release
Hammack Speaks at The Ohio State University’s John Glenn College of Public Affairs Event
Bowman Speaks at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Winter Financial Services Conference
Thursday, February 12
Miran Speaks at Dallas Fed Event
Friday, February 13
Consumer Price Index Release
Recent News
Holding pattern… Federal Reserve Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson said he was “cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook” in a talk at the Brookings Institution last week:
I see signs suggesting that the labor market is stabilizing, that inflation can return to a path toward our 2 percent objective, and that sustainable economic growth will continue. To be sure, there are risks to both sides of the dual mandate, given to us by Congress, of maximum employment and stable prices. Incoming data bear careful watching.
Jefferson noted the “sharp acceleration” in real GDP growth in the back half of 2025. He has revised up his projection for economic growth this year, and now expects 2.2 percent real GDP growth.
On the decline in non-farm payrolls, Jefferson said “part of the slowdown in the job market reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation.” But he thinks “labor demand has softened as well.” Taken together, he thinks the labor market is “roughly in balance, with a low-hiring, low-firing environment prevailing.”
Jefferson acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed’s target:
Progress on disinflation has stalled over the past year, and inflation remains elevated relative to our 2 percent target. Based on the most recent available data, it is estimated that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended in December 2025, and core prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, rose 3 percent. Those readings are similar to levels recorded at the end of 2024.
Echoing Chair Powell, Jefferson blamed “tariffs on some goods” for the “stall in the disinflationary process.”
Over the past year, we have seen a decline in services price inflation, mostly due to easing price pressures in housing services. But this decline has been offset by an increase in core goods price inflation. Certainly, some upside risks remain, but I expect the disinflationary process to resume this year once increased tariffs pass through more fully to prices. In addition, projected strong productivity growth may be a source of further help in bringing inflation down to our 2 percent target.
As for monetary policy, Jefferson said the federal funds rate target is “broadly in the range of estimates of the neutral rate,” which “should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its decline toward our 2 percent target.”
The Federal Open Market Committee meets again in March. The CME Group reports the implied odds of a rate cut at just 17.9 percent.
JOLTS… The number of job openings declined in December 2025, the BLS reported last week. There were 6.5 million openings on the last business day of the month, down from 6.9 million on the last business day of November 2025. Job openings have generally declined over the last year. There were 7.5 million job openings on the last business day of December 2024.
According to the BLS, there were 5.3 million hires in December 2025, up from 5.1 million in the prior month. There were 5.3 million separations, up from 5.1 million in the prior month.
Within separations, there were 3.2 million quits in December (roughly unchanged from November) and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges (up from 1.7 million in November).